Inter's Superman still flying down the flanks

And so it ends. After 49 games - equalling Arsenal's Invincibles' long run of undefeated matches - Juventus were finally beaten in Serie A last night. The side from Turin lost after scoring in the first 20 seconds, as Inter Milan captain Javier Zanetti was caught out of position enabling Kwadwo Asamoah to cross for the score. It was a rare mistake for the consistent and veteran Argentine Zanetti, who will be 40 next August. He recovered to put in a man of the match performance and help the Giuseppe Meazza outfit to a famous victory.

The 145-cap international was playing as a right wing-back, with both of the Derby D'Italia's competitors lining up with three at the back. Zanetti faced a tough task for the evening, marshalling the forward forays of the younger, quicker, stronger Asamoah. Yet using all his nous picked up since beginning in top-flight football in 1992 with Banfield, the defensive utility man blocked off Asamoah's sorties. Ever energetic, neat in possession, continually carrying the ball forward into enemy territory, able to disrupt the opposition's playing patterns with his fine reading of the game, Zanetti must go down as one of football's greatest full-backs. And such is his ability the 39-year-old has often forced himself into central midfield with his strong running and leadership.

In the summer, his contract expires, and many will wonder if he will finally hang up his boots, being the oldest outfield player in Serie A that he is. Judging on last night's match that will surely not happen. With his upright running style, Javier Zanetti - who shares a slight resemblance to Christopher Reeve - could be flying up the right flank for a few seasons yet.

Cruel, cool Chelsea take home the points as their three conductors enjoy centre stage at White Hart Lane

It was a disappointing defeat as Spurs lost their first home Premier League game of the 2012-13 season. Especially disenchanting that it should be Chelsea inflicting the damage, after the European champions so brutally denied Tottenham fans from seeing their club compete in the Champions League this year. Okay, the rules of every competition are laid out well in advance, and there can be no quibbling at losing the coveted last entry place for Europe's elite competition, but oh how it rankles that your club should finish fourth yet be denied by two undeserved victories for your rivals in Camp Nou and then the Allianz Arena. Tottenham have been unlucky for sure.

But that Chelsea should come to North London and take the three points, in a crucial encounter that could have seen the Lilywhites make real inroads into the race for the Championship, is doubly galling. Especially when you consider that the men who did the damage conceivably could have been plying their trade down the Seven Sisters High Road rather than in West London. Unlikely as it was, Tottenham made the early running for Eden Hazard, Juan Mata and Oscar at various times in the last 12 months, when the three impish midfielders were considering the next steps in their career. Although Mata may not have considered a club of Tottenham's class, should Spurs have been in the Champions League in 2012-13 then it's not so ridiculous to suggest that one of the three could have been supplying the bullets to Jermain Defoe on Saturday afternoon. Instead, Andre Villas-Boas must make do with Clint Dempsey and Gylfi Sigurdsson, two decent league players, but a pair who trailed in the shadows of Chelsea's silky trio for large parts of this weekend's match.

The three Blues orchestrators were the chief tormentors, neatly recycling the ball through the middle of White Hart Lane, at times with ease, at other moments with pure class and ingenuity, as they fed each other into the spaces that appeared when Sandro, Tom Huddlestone and Jake Livermore slowed their movement. By keeping the ball and teasing their chasing opposition, they tested the heart of their opponents just like the home fans' heartstrings were pulled around last May. Finally given the space the three conjurors craved in the second half of Saturday's pulsating encounter, they then ruthlessly exposed the Tottenham rear-guard to ensure the points went to Stamford Bridge. The fatal wounding was delivered just after Spurs supporters' hopes were raised following a high-intensity blast of pressing straight after half-time that saw the home side briefly lead the game 2-1. Still, at least the White Hart Lane faithful will be used to such cruel resolutions by now...

Reasons to be cheerful - the match stats show that Spurs were unlucky to not get anything from the game on Saturday, and with up to five first team regulars (Bale, Dembele, Kaboul, Assou-Ekotto and Parker) missing, the north Londoners can be sure that a brighter future awaits them:

Long lived the King…

The former club captain is as laid back as they come. A stylish player who became a firm fan favourite and quite simply a footballing icon in North London. Yes, Thierry Henry would have a strong argument to being Arsenal's greatest ever player. A record of 228 goals in 376 games, topping Ian Wright and Cliff Bastin's records, holds sway. But upon asked who his toughest opponent was in Match magazine he named, the unlikely-to-many Ledley King. Henry cited the Tottenham club captain's ability to nick the ball off him without resort to dark arts or overly physical means. King was, in his opinion, a master of timing and judgement. Of course, with Spurs and Arsenal's rivalry there could be some political interference here but there can be no doubting that King impressed many who saw him play.

And Ledley was rated. Many believe that he could have overtaken Rio Ferdinand or John Terry as a golden defender at the heart of the English team were it not for his well-documented injuries. Maybe this is hyperbole – King even at his peak wasn't linked with transfers to the biggest clubs as would befit a world class centre half, but there can be no doubting of his value to successive Tottenham managers, and in general, the way he impressed all those who watched him play, not least three England managers. He was, to many, 'a Rolls Royce' of a player, as Martin Jol declared back in 2007. 

King dealt in security, offering reliability to an often listing Tottenham defence that always looked more tangible with Ledley's impeccable measured tackles anchoring the central areas. His reading of the game was formidable, and at his peak he could match the best with his pace, acceleration and strength in the air, witness the last-gasp tackles on Arjen Robben at White Hart Lane in November 2006 and even early last season as he slid in to deny Clint Dempsey surely scoring at Craven Cottage. Indeed, he reduced Henry to a bit-part for England in the opening game of Euro 2004, filling in admirably after a late injury to Rio Ferdinand (and demonstrating what might have been, as a partnership with Sol Campbell exuded natural understanding and sheer excellence). Later he shined in London derbies, becoming a key player as Spurs advanced from the pack to become a team of genuine ambition. King recently said that he was injured within three minutes of making his full debut against Derby in 1999 at the age of 19, a blow to his knee that would continue to affect him throughout his career. He confessed of the damage and how it would impose itself on him: "I quickly grasped that I was never going to be as good as I wanted to be but I still felt I could be very good." How good could he have been will remain a drinking debate along the Tottenham High Road for many years to come.

Ledley was always so relaxed, his shoulders betraying a constant easiness and confident demeanor that rubbed off on his play. He was a leader-by-example type, commanding respect as he did the six-yard box. He said the right things, rather than squawking from the back. And in the same vein did he play. There was nary an unsightly kerfuffle with his defending. Just a well-timed tackle, swift dispossession and play on. He was a classy protector of the Tottenham goal, a security guard dressed in lillywhite silk, a man of tremendous gift and a cornerstone of the club's advancement. Ledley King could have been named by Dickens such was the appropriateness of his moniker. Tiger Woods, Usain Bolt, Ledley King: men named in advance.

Common market: The top players who could be on the move this summer

(Part 2 of 2)

Transfer sagas before they happen, and where the top players may end up

Attacking midfielders, second strikers and wingers

Royston Drenthe (25, Real Madrid): After completing a mixed six-month loan deal with Everton, it's being rumoured that the Dutch wide midfielder will be staying on in Merseyside, though not in a blue shirt. Available on a free transfer, Drenthe could well fulfil the potential he showed at Feyenoord before he moved to Madrid should he settle in England and get regular first-team football.

Victor Moses (21, Wigan): The powerful, athletic Moses has been fair set for stardom ever since moving to the UK from Nigeria when he was 11 years old. Playing a pivotal role in Wigan's survival bid, he's begun to show real potential, with six goals and six assists in 37 appearances last season. A big future lies ahead, though with just one year left on his contract, it may not be at the DW Stadium.

Ezequiel Lavezzi (27, Napoli): Italian giants Inter Milan and French nouveau riche club PSG are rumoured to be seriously interested in the barrel-chested, wide attacker, who averages 10 goals a season in one of Europe's most defensively dominated leagues. A sparkling run by Napoli in the 2011-12 Champions League has helped to highlight Lavezzi's talents: close control, improvisation and a knack of scoring important goals. [Edit: now at PSG after moving for some €26 million.)

Wesley Sneijder (27, Inter Milan): Without Champions League football next season for Inter Milan, attacking midfielder Sneijder may well decide to move on from the San Siro this summer. Heavily linked to Man Utd last term, the UEFA Club Midfielder of the Year for 2010 would be a high profile capture and impressive signing for any club that can agree a deal with him.

Hulk (26, Porto): The stocky right-sided attacker packs one of the most explosive shots in world football. He regularly tops the scoring and assists charts in Portugal and is reportedly talking to Chelsea about a big money move to the Premier League.

Eden Hazard (21, Lille) Destination? Manchester. Possibly the most coveted transfer target of the summer, the Lille winger and playmaker is at the time of writing said to be soon wearing a blue shirt. The Ligue 1 Player of the Year for both 2011 and 2012 has hit 17 goals and 15 assists in 37 Ligue 1 games. [Edit: Now at Chelsea.]

Junior Hoilett (21, Blackburn Rovers): The Canadian winger/attacking midfielder stood out in season 2011-12 despite his club's woeful form and eventual relegation. Seven goals and six assists in 34 league games represented a fine return for the diminutive but nippy Hoilett, with several spectacular long-range strikes catching the eye. He's said to be going to Germany to play for Borussia Moenchengladbach, although half the Premier League would love to snap him up for next season, with any prospective new employers only needing to pay whatever compensation is deemed sufficient by a tribunal.

Milos Krasic (27, Juventus): The Serbian winger has endured a difficult season, watching on from the sidelines and out of favour with coach Antonio Conte as Juventus have set Serie A ablaze. He scored some nine goals in all competitions in his first year at the Old Lady – a respectable sum, and he interested Tottenham Hotspur and Zenit St Petersberg in the January transfer window.

Ganso (22, Santos): The Brazilian starlet has been constantly linked with a move to Europe over the last 18 months, and FC Porto and AC Milan are the latest names in the frame. A blistering start to his Campeonato Brasileiro Série A career in 2009 saw him score eight goals in 31 games from attacking midfield positions, and he has since gone on to feature for the full Brazil side regularly under Mano Menezes. However a poor 2011 and a lacklustre World Club Challenge mean that Paulo Henrique Ganso has much still to prove. (Edit: Said to be on the verge of a domestic transfer to Internacional.)

Lucas Moura (19, Sao Paulo): After Neymar, Lucas Moura is widely considered as the best Brazilian prospect currently playing his trade in South America. Operating as a winger or wide attacker, the young Brazilian is said to be attracting the attentions of Chelsea, Real Madrid and Inter Milan, with the Londoners recently bidding €40 million for his services. It wasn't enough to gain his registration, and if Lucas continues to dazzle, as he has done in his 11 caps for Brazil, a much higher sum will be needed to capture him.

Borja Valero (27, Villarreal): Following Villarreal's relegation to the Segunda División, the creative central midfielder will be on the move to pastures new. Intelligent movement, industry and a tidy recycling of the ball mark out Valerio (who has one cap for Spain), while six goals in 44 appearances this season will have shown potential suitors what they'll get back upon a modest transfer outlay.

Rasmus Elm (24, AZ): Swedish midfield schemer Elm has been linked with several English sides over the last year as he enjoyed his most successful season yet, scoring 10 goals in 32 league games, with countless assists along the way. A deep-lying playmaker or wide attacking midfielder, should free-kick specialist Elm impress at Euro 2012 he could well be on the move before September.

Younès Belhanda (22, Montpellier HSC): Belhanda has been compared to Robert Pires in France, and a successful  Ligue 1 winning league campaign has only helped the Moroccan attacking midfielder's stock rise higher. He recently confirmed a wish to remain in France to play Champions League football, but should one of the big boys come knocking, a transfer could well happen, particularly if any of his club mates move first.

Hatem Ben Arfa (25, Newcastle United): Ben Arfa scored five goals in 26 league appearances this season, several of which have been in the running for various goal of the season competitions. Playing in the number 10 position or off either wing, the French flyer has technique, pace in a abundance and a devilish left foot. After breaking his leg early in his Newcastle United career he looks to have won over the Geordie faithful and could well feature for France in their 2014 World Cup qualifiers.

Clint Dempsey (29, Fulham FC): The Fulham attacker has played more of an advanced role in the last two seasons, switching from wide right to playing just behind the traditional number 9. And Dempsey has got better and better, scoring a career best 23 goals in 46 appearances this past season. Capable in the air, inventive (as shown by his sublime chipped goal versus Juventus in the 2010-11 Europa League), with good movement and a knack of being in the right place, it will be no surprise if he satisfies his desire for Champions League football at one of the top British clubs. Arsenal perhaps?

Moussa Doumbélé (24, Fulham): Under Martin Jol, Dembélé has moved to a slightly deeper position in the Fulham team. He began life as a traditional number 10, but with a wide range of passing, tight control and upper body strength, he has developed into a regista, deep-lying playmaker. A lack of goals is one weakness that should be addressed by the Belgium international, but that aside he looks to have become the long-term replacement to the departing Danny Murphy. However, with just one year left on his contract, Dembele may well look to move to a club competing in European competition in the next few months. Chelsea and Spurs have been linked.

Nicolás Gaitán (24, Benfica): The Argentinean attacking midfielder has had two good seasons at Benfica, after replacing the departing Ángel di María who he switched to Real Madrid in 2010. Press speculation has seen Gaitán linked with Manchester United, though this now looks more like the work of his agent in drumming up interest. At one point last season he led the way in the Champions League for the most assists in the 2011-12 competition and further development could see him land the big move his agent is touting for.

Mathieu Valbuena (27, Marseille): Despite Olympique de Marseille only finishing in mid-table last season, Valbuena has already stated his intention to remain at the club. A lack of financial resources and his strong performances in the Champions League and at times for the French national side may say otherwise, should any top clubs come calling. Some 14 assists and nine goals in 45 games during 2011-12 offers a high yield for the diminutive attacker.

Stéphane Sessègnon (28, Sunderland): The Benin attacker scored eight goals in 41 games for Sunderland last term, and his pace, close control and goal scoring has reportedly attracted the attention of several high profile clubs. Sessègnon also announced at one point that he was homesick, though this seems to have been overcome, with a prolonged stay on Wearside the most likely outcome as to what happens to him this summer.

Ibrahim Afellay (26, Barcelona): A serious knee injury in September 2011 curtailed Afellay's 2011-12 season, though he returned to first-team football just in time to make Holland's Euro 2012 squad, scoring twice against Northern Ireland in a pre-tournament warm-up game. Afellay can play on either wing or as an attacking midfielder, and has an excellent goal-scoring record from midfield, hitting 13 goals in the 2008-9 term at PSV Eindhoven. Unable to break into the Barca first team, a divorce looks to be coming in the near future.

Shinji Kagawa (23, was Dortmund – now Man Utd): Following his best season in Germany, Kagawa has recently completed a move to Manchester United, where he'll compete with the likes of Giggs, Nani and Valencia for a role as an attacking midfielder. Playing in the number 10 position for Dortmund, he may even find himself in competition with United talisman Wayne Rooney for the role of trequartista.

Steven Jovetić (22, Fiorentina): Former Partizan second striker or attacking midfielder 'Jo-Jo' is one of the brightest talents in Serie A. Napoli and Juve have been cited as admirers of the six-foot, left-footed attacker, who scored 14 goals in 27 games during Fiorentina's dismal season last year. And Jovetić has proven equally adept on the national stage: nine goals in 20 appearances for Montenegro point to a rosy future. Fiorentina, so far, remain determined to keep him.

Luka Modrić (26, Tottenham): With Spurs failing to secure Champions League football last season, the slight Croatian playmaker will most likely look to move to pastures new. A transfer request was ignored last season by the Tottenham Hotspur hierarchy but another push to leave, coupled with a big money bid, may prove hard to resist for the financially shrewd Daniel Levy and his fellow board members.

Common market: The top players who could be on the move this summer

(Part 1 of 2)

Transfer sagas before they happen, and where the top players may end up

Defensive midfielders

Yann M'Vila (21, Rennes): The talented enforcer, with a terrific range of passing, has been a mainstay in Laurent Blanc's French team, and is widely reported to be on the move this summer. Heavily tipped to go to Arsenal, though was linked with Inter Milan last year too. [Update: said to be on the verge of moving to Arsenal.]

Javi Martínez (23, Athletic Bilbao): Tall (6ft, 3), resolute, aggressive and with that terrific Spanish technique, midfield roadblock Martínez has had a great season with Marcelo Bielsa's Bilbao, often playing at centre-back. He stood out at last summer's U21 European Championships and could well go to Barca or Real Madrid this summer.

Stéphane Mbia (25, Olympique Marseille): The defensive midfielder turned centre-back moved in 2009 for 10.4m from Rennes to Olympique Marseille. Despite OM having a disappointing league campaign, Mbia has further cemented his reputation as a defensive player par excellence. Harry Redknapp has declared an interest, while Mbia himself has spoken of a desire to play for Manchester United or Arsenal.

Lucas Biglia (26, Anderlecht): Touted as Arsène Wenger's back-up target should he fail to capture Yann M'Vila, Argentinian Biglia has six full international caps. He was also named as Belgian Young Footballer of the Year in 2007. Real Madrid have looked at him, though he may well stay at Anderlecht.

Javi García (25, Benfica): García's impressive performances in this season's Champions League have not gone unnoticed by top Premier League clubs. Both Alex Ferguson and Arsène Wenger dispatched scouts to watch him at one stage in 2011-12. An assured display against Chelsea in the quarter-finals at centre-back also showed that the former Real Madrid holding midfielder has the robust play to handle the English midfield battle. However, he has recently declared himself happy in Lisbon and so is unlikely to move in 2012.

Cheick Tioté (25, Newcastle): The Ivorian defensive midfielder's furious energy has helped propel Newcastle into the European places of the Premier League this year. His tenacity in the tackle is almost unrivalled and even though Tioté signed a deal tying him to the Magpies until 2017, should an elite club like Manchester United call, he'd surely be tempted.

Defenders

Adil Rami (26, València): Rami has excelled since making the move from Lille to València last summer. The imposing centreback has impressed at the back for both Los Che and Laurent Blanc's new-look France over the last 12 months and he has reportedly piqued the interest of Barca, Real and Manchester United.

Walter Samuel (34, Inter Milan): Despite being in the latter stages of his career, 'The Wall' as Samuel is known, could provide an important solution at centre-back for any team looking for leadership, aggression, tactical nous and a defensive beast at set-pieces. He's out of contract in the summer, though Inter will surely keep him on for one more season at least. [Update: has just signed a new one year deal with Inter.]

Jan Vertonghen (25, AFC Ajax): The Ajax captain is one of the transfer stories of the summer. Leading the Amsterdammers to their second league title in succession, he's just been named Dutch Footballer of the Year (following the likes of Gullit and Van Basten), scoring an incredible seven goals in 24 league games from central defence. The stylish, left-footed stopper loves to bring the ball into midfield, leading to comparisons with Dutch sweeper Ruud Krol. Has been heavily linked with Arsenal, Manchester City, Tottenham and Barcelona.

Mateo Musacchio (21, Villarreal): The Argentinian U21 defender has not had the best season, being part of a miserable campaign for The Yellow Submarine. However, should his club cash in on him, there'll be plenty of suitors for the talented man marker. Would be a good signing for Valencia or Atlético Madrid.

Dedé (23, Vasco da Gama): Widely recognised as one of the best defenders in Brazil, Dedé has been linked with Real Madrid and Manchester United. However, he recently declared he was happy at Vasco and doesn't see a need to decamp to Europe in his career just yet. Certainly one to keep an eye on, Dedé is 6ft 3 and a half, and has won several awards for being the best centre-back in the Brazilian league over the last two years.

Mathieu Debuchy (26, LOSC Lille): Any clubs looking for a defensively sound right-back with the ability to have an impact in the final third will be examining Debuchy. After being converted from deep-lying midfielder to attacking right-back (or lateral, as the position is known in Latin countries), he's enjoyed nine solid seasons with Lille, scoring four goals this term, as well as impressing for France in his last international outing, where he set up both goals as Germany were defeated in Bremen (see video below). Bayern Münich may be interested.

Gregory Van Der Wiel (24, AFC Ajax): The athletic Van Der Wiel had an outstanding World Cup 2010 as The Netherlands reached the final. The Dutch Young Player of the Year for the same year also played a key role as Frank De Boer's young side recaptured the Eredivisie league title in 2011. Injury has, however, disrupted this season meaning that he's only played a bit-part (13 league appearances) role as Ajax have won their second title in a row. It also prevented València tying up a deal with him, though that will surely be resurrected this summer.

Brede Hangeland (30, Fulham): Fulham must fear that they'll lose the experienced Hangeland this summer. With his contract due to expire in 2013, now is the time for the commanding centre-half to move if he's to play in the elite Champions League. At 6ft 6 and with 31 caps for Norway, the ball-playing Hangeland, whose distribution is excellent, may attract a bid from a top German or French club, if not Arsenal (who were linked with him last year) or Tottenham.

Danny Simpson (25, Newcastle): Another standout performer for the over-achieving Newcastle United this season. The former Manchester United full-back is out of contract this summer, and is well worth a look for clubs needing a new right-back with pace and Premier League experience. Alan Pardew has been trying his utmost to convince Simpson to stay; European football may just prove the necessary allure.

Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa (22, Montpellier): At the time of writing, Montpellier captain Yanga-Mbiwa is on course to lift the French Ligue 1 trophy. Not bad for a young centre-back with just eight caps for the French U21s; the Premier League beckons. Outspoken Montpellier owner Louis Nicollin is reluctant to let his young charge leave however, with Newcastle and Arsenal interested, while Montpellier's inclusion in next season's Champions League may serve as a deterrent to any transfer too.

Benoît-Assou Ekotto (28, Tottenham Hotspur): 'Benny', as the Spurs fans endear him, has continued to improve year on year at Tottenham, with two goals and five assists in the 2011-12 campaign (30 appearances). Exquisite dribbling skills, composure on the ball and raking passes are all weapons in the left-sided Cameroonian defender's armoury. However, he has only one year left on his contract at White Hart Lane and chairman Daniel Levy is unlikely to let him leave for nothing in 2013, having been badly stung before when club captain Sol Campbell left on a free in 2001. Manager Harry Redknapp will hope that a new contract is soon agreed.

Free parking! Six fantastic freebies for European clubs to look at this summer…

With UEFA's new Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules looming on the horizon, clubs are being compelled to rein in their spending or fall foul of the new legislation. Clever player trading has never been more important. Here are six top players available for NOTHING in the summer who could help their new clubs win silverware next season.

1) Didier Drogba (34; 11 March '78): The Ivorian powerhouse striker has been inconsistent this season but has still put in several match-winning performances (notably in the Champions League bullying Valencia at home). He would be a great catch for any clubs beyond Manchester looking for a physical presence to lead the line.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Didier_Drogba

2) Raul (34; 27 June ’77): He may be at the latter stage of his career but the Spanish veteran still has the quality to affect games. His sharp finishing has seen him score 25 goals in 60 league games over the last two years, while he's the Champions League's record all-time scorer. Henrik Larsson and Paul Scholes have both proved that experienced players can make a difference to the right team.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raúl_González

3) Riccardo Montolivo (27; 18 Jan ’85): The central midfielder from Florence is available for nothing in the summer. Despite a poor season in a struggling Fiorentina team, this regista still has the eye for a pass and the ability to retain possession and help put his side on the front foot. He has played a regular role in Cesare Prandelli's Euro 2012-qualifying Azzuri side.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montolivo

4) Tim Wiese (30; 17 Dec ’81): The German Nationalmannschaft 2010 World Cup third keeper recently announced that he'll be leaving Werder Bremen after seven years. He'll prove to be a shrewd bargain for whoever picks him up.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Wiese

5) Salomon Kalou (26; 5 Aug ’85): The striker-cum-winger is adaptable enough to play in any frontline role. His speed, strength and close-range finishing ability will surely result in more first team football as long as he leaves Chelsea for pastures new.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salomon_Kalou

6) Mathieu Flamini (28; 7 March ’84): Industry, aggression and full-blooded commitment come as standard with AC Milan midfielder Flamini. His 2011-12 season has been disrupted by a serious knee injury, but should he be released, he'd make an excellent fulcrum for whichever club supplies his next contract.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathieu_Flamini

Euro 2012 - what to bet on

Where to make money on the forthcoming Euros

First post. And it's straight in at the deep end like a Rory Delap throw-in… Footy and betting. Two passions very close to my heart. I watch a lot of football – a lot: a match a night and even more at the weekend – and like many I'm obsessed by the game. In 2010 I won £400-ish betting on the World Cup. Last year I won £300 betting on the Champs League. Overall outlays were around £100 for both events but it could so easily have resulted in bigger wins of a grand or more if other circumstances had occurred (Messi to score the last goal in the Champs League/Villa to have been outright top scorer in the 2010 World Cup, where he'd have needed one more goal. Oooohhh… so close…).

And so I thought I'd share my tips with you on my next tournament bets, generous chap that I am. First or last goalscorer is quite frankly a lottery, as is guessing the correct score, with rubbish odds for those likely to score, naturally. I like the thrill of some longer odds to spice things up. So I'm going for overall top scorer at Euro 2012, combined with the winning team. This will further push the odds out, and in some cases considerably. And although there's a big chance that the top scorer and winning team may not be connected, history has shown that often the two are. It does of course make sense. The team that wins the tournament will play more matches than anybody else. At the Euros, unlike at the World Cup, there is no third/fourth play-off place, meaning that the winners will play one more match, giving their strikers extra time to score. Plus, if a team's leading striker catches fire and scores plenty of goals during the tournament, that team is more likely to win the tournament.

Past Euro tournaments in which this was the case (or close):

• Euro 2008: Spain won; David Villa was top scorer
• Euro 1996: Shearer and England were close
• Euro 1992: Denmark won; Henrik Larsen (not that one) was equal top scorer
• Euro 1988: Holland; Van Basten
• Euro 1984: France; Platini
• Euro 1980: Germany; Allofs
• Euro 1972: Germany; Müller
• Euro 1964: Spain; Maria Pereda (equal top scorer)
• Euro 1960: Soviet Union; two Soviet players were equal top scorers, along with pretty much everybody else as no-one scored more than two

So out of 13 tournaments (1960-2008), the top scorer and winning teams were linked some eight times, if including tied top-scorers. In 1996, England and Alan Shearer were centimetres away from beating Germany (if Gazza could have reached that little closer to the ball…) from furthering this pattern. (Worth mentioning here that Victor Chandler paid out to me after the 2010 World Cup despite Villa being tied as top scorer (Respec'), albeit with reduced winnings divided by the number of tied scorers. In this case, divided four ways, as Forlan, Sneijder and Müller.

It's a similar case with the World Cup, but the pattern is not quite so prolific:

• 2010 World Cup: Spain win; Villa equal top scorer
• 2006: Germany third; Klose top scorer – so close
• 2002 World Cup: Ronaldo top scorer
• 1998: Croatia third; Davor Sukur top scorer – close again 
• 1990: Italy third with Schillaci as top scorer – close once more
• 1982: Italy win; Rossi top scorer
• 1978: Argentina win; Kempes top scorer
• 1970: Germany third; Müller top scorer – close again; propensity for teams in the semis to provide the top scorers
• 1966: Portugal third; Eusebio top scorer – again
• 1962: Brazil win; Garrincha and Vava are equal top scorers with two others
• 1950: Brazil win; Ademir top scorer
• 1930: Argentina were runners-up; Guillermo Stabile was top scorer

Although the top scorer and winning team combo has happened on fewer occasions in the World Cup, there's still a natural correlation between the two. Perhaps the Euros not having that third/fourth play-off game makes a big difference. Either way, the pattern is clear.

So who to go for?

The remarkable ten-out-of-ten wins for Germany and eight-out-of-eight for Spain in 2012 qualifying, together with their results in Euro 2008 and the 2010 World Cup, makes it damn hard to look beyond these two. The harder question is to identify who their main strikers will be during the tournaments. Mario Gómez and Miroslav Klose are both vying for the number 9 position for Germany; and who will lead the line for favourites Spain, with David Villa having suffered a long-term injury in the World Club Championship final versus Santos back in December?

My recommendations are a few cover bets to insure you against erroneous team selections. I'll be going for either Klose or Gómez based on the German team selection for their friendly matches before the tournament and club form. Klose scored nine goals in qualifying, Gómez got six. In the ten qualifying matches, Klose started six while Gómez began four. Gómez also made two appearances from the bench; Klose made none – pointing to Klose remaining the first choice number 9.

In the three friendlies since the qualifiers, Gómez began against Ukraine, Klose against Holland (in which he scored), and they both played half each against France in Germany's last game on 29 Feb, though neither netted. The current best odds of 40-1 (oddschecker.com) for Klose seem very generous, compared to the 16-1 for Gómez and are well worth considering, although at the time of writing Klose has just picked up an injury that may rule him out until May. Germany's friendlies in May against Israel and Switzerland will be well worth viewing to see which striker to plump for, while club form and physical condition need consideration too.

Away from Deutschland, Spain and their best strikers need to be seriously considered too. However, David Villa's broken leg in December complicates things here, otherwise he'd be the obvious choice (he top scored for Spain in qualification with seven goals; and at Euro 2008). A recent Soldado hat-trick against Venezuela aside, neither Negredo, Llorente or Torres have proved to be particularly prolific in Villa's absence. Again, if going for Spain, their friendlies against Serbia and China and the line-ups fielded should be indicative of which strikers will play. Villa currently resides at 20-1 best odds, which with a return from injury still a way off is not worth risking.

Outsiders

My recommended outsiders don't stretch any further than Holland and France, who both qualified well (France only lost once in qualification – even if they left qualifying until late in the day).

Holland qualified well and showed at the 2010 World Cup that they were a decent bet. And the high goal tallies for Huntelaar and Van Persie for their clubs this season make them obvious choices with odds of 125-1 and 50-1 respectively looking very tempting.

My final outsider that I'll be going for is France and Benzema who comes in at a whopping 150-1 currently. France may not be expected to do well in the tournament, but don't forget that they face a Rooney-less England, who they beat convincingly in 2010 at Wembley in the group stages, recently beat Germany in Germany (albeit in a friendly) and are unbeaten in 18 matches.

Benzema will no doubt spearhead their attack in June, and is equal sixth top scorer in La Liga at the time of writing. He only scored a paltry three goals in qualifying (equal with Gourcuff) though, but despite that, I feel he's still worth a punt at such long odds.