Euro 2012 - what to bet on

Where to make money on the forthcoming Euros

First post. And it's straight in at the deep end like a Rory Delap throw-in… Footy and betting. Two passions very close to my heart. I watch a lot of football – a lot: a match a night and even more at the weekend – and like many I'm obsessed by the game. In 2010 I won £400-ish betting on the World Cup. Last year I won £300 betting on the Champs League. Overall outlays were around £100 for both events but it could so easily have resulted in bigger wins of a grand or more if other circumstances had occurred (Messi to score the last goal in the Champs League/Villa to have been outright top scorer in the 2010 World Cup, where he'd have needed one more goal. Oooohhh… so close…).

And so I thought I'd share my tips with you on my next tournament bets, generous chap that I am. First or last goalscorer is quite frankly a lottery, as is guessing the correct score, with rubbish odds for those likely to score, naturally. I like the thrill of some longer odds to spice things up. So I'm going for overall top scorer at Euro 2012, combined with the winning team. This will further push the odds out, and in some cases considerably. And although there's a big chance that the top scorer and winning team may not be connected, history has shown that often the two are. It does of course make sense. The team that wins the tournament will play more matches than anybody else. At the Euros, unlike at the World Cup, there is no third/fourth play-off place, meaning that the winners will play one more match, giving their strikers extra time to score. Plus, if a team's leading striker catches fire and scores plenty of goals during the tournament, that team is more likely to win the tournament.

Past Euro tournaments in which this was the case (or close):

• Euro 2008: Spain won; David Villa was top scorer
• Euro 1996: Shearer and England were close
• Euro 1992: Denmark won; Henrik Larsen (not that one) was equal top scorer
• Euro 1988: Holland; Van Basten
• Euro 1984: France; Platini
• Euro 1980: Germany; Allofs
• Euro 1972: Germany; Müller
• Euro 1964: Spain; Maria Pereda (equal top scorer)
• Euro 1960: Soviet Union; two Soviet players were equal top scorers, along with pretty much everybody else as no-one scored more than two

So out of 13 tournaments (1960-2008), the top scorer and winning teams were linked some eight times, if including tied top-scorers. In 1996, England and Alan Shearer were centimetres away from beating Germany (if Gazza could have reached that little closer to the ball…) from furthering this pattern. (Worth mentioning here that Victor Chandler paid out to me after the 2010 World Cup despite Villa being tied as top scorer (Respec'), albeit with reduced winnings divided by the number of tied scorers. In this case, divided four ways, as Forlan, Sneijder and Müller.

It's a similar case with the World Cup, but the pattern is not quite so prolific:

• 2010 World Cup: Spain win; Villa equal top scorer
• 2006: Germany third; Klose top scorer – so close
• 2002 World Cup: Ronaldo top scorer
• 1998: Croatia third; Davor Sukur top scorer – close again 
• 1990: Italy third with Schillaci as top scorer – close once more
• 1982: Italy win; Rossi top scorer
• 1978: Argentina win; Kempes top scorer
• 1970: Germany third; Müller top scorer – close again; propensity for teams in the semis to provide the top scorers
• 1966: Portugal third; Eusebio top scorer – again
• 1962: Brazil win; Garrincha and Vava are equal top scorers with two others
• 1950: Brazil win; Ademir top scorer
• 1930: Argentina were runners-up; Guillermo Stabile was top scorer

Although the top scorer and winning team combo has happened on fewer occasions in the World Cup, there's still a natural correlation between the two. Perhaps the Euros not having that third/fourth play-off game makes a big difference. Either way, the pattern is clear.

So who to go for?

The remarkable ten-out-of-ten wins for Germany and eight-out-of-eight for Spain in 2012 qualifying, together with their results in Euro 2008 and the 2010 World Cup, makes it damn hard to look beyond these two. The harder question is to identify who their main strikers will be during the tournaments. Mario Gómez and Miroslav Klose are both vying for the number 9 position for Germany; and who will lead the line for favourites Spain, with David Villa having suffered a long-term injury in the World Club Championship final versus Santos back in December?

My recommendations are a few cover bets to insure you against erroneous team selections. I'll be going for either Klose or Gómez based on the German team selection for their friendly matches before the tournament and club form. Klose scored nine goals in qualifying, Gómez got six. In the ten qualifying matches, Klose started six while Gómez began four. Gómez also made two appearances from the bench; Klose made none – pointing to Klose remaining the first choice number 9.

In the three friendlies since the qualifiers, Gómez began against Ukraine, Klose against Holland (in which he scored), and they both played half each against France in Germany's last game on 29 Feb, though neither netted. The current best odds of 40-1 (oddschecker.com) for Klose seem very generous, compared to the 16-1 for Gómez and are well worth considering, although at the time of writing Klose has just picked up an injury that may rule him out until May. Germany's friendlies in May against Israel and Switzerland will be well worth viewing to see which striker to plump for, while club form and physical condition need consideration too.

Away from Deutschland, Spain and their best strikers need to be seriously considered too. However, David Villa's broken leg in December complicates things here, otherwise he'd be the obvious choice (he top scored for Spain in qualification with seven goals; and at Euro 2008). A recent Soldado hat-trick against Venezuela aside, neither Negredo, Llorente or Torres have proved to be particularly prolific in Villa's absence. Again, if going for Spain, their friendlies against Serbia and China and the line-ups fielded should be indicative of which strikers will play. Villa currently resides at 20-1 best odds, which with a return from injury still a way off is not worth risking.

Outsiders

My recommended outsiders don't stretch any further than Holland and France, who both qualified well (France only lost once in qualification – even if they left qualifying until late in the day).

Holland qualified well and showed at the 2010 World Cup that they were a decent bet. And the high goal tallies for Huntelaar and Van Persie for their clubs this season make them obvious choices with odds of 125-1 and 50-1 respectively looking very tempting.

My final outsider that I'll be going for is France and Benzema who comes in at a whopping 150-1 currently. France may not be expected to do well in the tournament, but don't forget that they face a Rooney-less England, who they beat convincingly in 2010 at Wembley in the group stages, recently beat Germany in Germany (albeit in a friendly) and are unbeaten in 18 matches.

Benzema will no doubt spearhead their attack in June, and is equal sixth top scorer in La Liga at the time of writing. He only scored a paltry three goals in qualifying (equal with Gourcuff) though, but despite that, I feel he's still worth a punt at such long odds.